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FIN4934 George Washington University ICG Inc Risk simulation Analysis

FIN4934 George Washington University ICG Inc Risk simulation Analysis

Question Description

Excel analysis

ICG, Inc has been struggling to launch a new product for the past 12 months.

Given the info below, what is the uncertainty distribution of the expected revenues of a new product?

The average price for the product can be minimally $10, most likely $12 and maximally $15.

Sales may be between 1,000 and 100,000 products, with most likely sales of 30,000.

Use the regular PERT distributions (see a description of the Pert distribution in @Risk) to determine:

1.Average expected total revenue

2.What is the probability that expected revenue will be less than $123,123

3.What is the probability that expected revenue will be higher than $800,000

OBS: Simulation settings: 5,000 iterations

Sampling Type: = Latin Hypercube

Initial Seed Fixed =123

RGN = Mersenne Twister

Multiple simulations All use same seeds

4. What is the difference between choosing static values or random values for distribution returns when a simulation is not running?

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